At the international climate negotiation table, whether it is “praising” or “blaming”, “ambition” is the most commonly used vocabulary in various countries.
On the 30th, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced China’s emission reduction commitments at the upcoming climate conference. In the opinion of industry experts, this commitment can fully afford the word "ambition".
China’s document submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change on the same day described its 2030 action target: carbon dioxide emissions peaked around 2030 and strived to reach peak as early as possible, and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP fell 60%-65% compared to 2005. .
“Some countries are accustomed to attacking China with carbon dioxide emissions in recent years, but this comparison is unfair,” said Zou Wei, deputy director of China’s National Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation Center, in an interview with China News Service. Compared to the “instantaneous emissions” of carbon dioxide, cumulative carbon dioxide emissions are the main cause of global warming.
Zou Wei said that according to China's proposed control target, by 2030, China's cumulative carbon dioxide emissions since the first industrial revolution in 1750 will still be lower than Europe and the United States. "If China's cumulative emissions are 1, the United States is about 1.4, and Europe is about 1.2." He stressed that the above comparison is the emissions of the entire country, "if we count as lower per capita."
In fact, a single cumulative emissions comparison will also mask some important facts. Climate change researchers are familiar with a curve: as per capita GDP increases, the country's per capita emissions will rise and then peak and then fall.
Compared with the developed countries that have already passed the peak, China is still in the process of industrialization and urbanization, which is the peak period of carbon emissions on the curve. However, Zou Wei emphasized that China is striving to avoid re-taking the old roads in Europe and America through the innovation of development model.
He analyzed that when the carbon emissions in Europe and the United States peaked, their per capita GDP had risen to between 20,000 and 25,000 US dollars. According to China’s proposed goal, when carbon emissions reach their peak, China’s per capita GDP may not reach 15,000 US dollars. “This means that China needs to use the minimum greenhouse gas emissions to achieve national modernization and achieve people’s security. Wealth, dignity and happiness."
In addition to the horizontal comparison of cumulative emissions and development trends, the vertical comparison of a country's emission reduction efforts is also an important dimension for identifying “ambitions”.
Europe and the United States have already submitted their own contribution plans. Zou Wei said that compared with the past emission reduction efforts, the new US plan has slightly accelerated, but it is not as obvious as China.
Any of the deputy directors of China's National Climate Change Expert Committee, Jian Kun, also stressed the escalation of China's emission reduction efforts for China News Service reporters. He said that in Copenhagen, China's goal is to reduce carbon dioxide per unit of GDP by 40% to 45% by 2020. The implementation of this goal has already put a lot of effort into it. To fulfill the 2030 target means that the annual rate of carbon emissions per unit of GDP needs to fall faster, which means that China will make greater efforts.
As an important measure to reduce carbon emissions, China has clearly proposed to promote hydropower development, develop nuclear power safely and efficiently, vigorously develop wind power, accelerate the development of solar power generation, and actively develop geothermal energy, biomass energy and ocean energy.
According to He Jiankun, according to rough calculations, only the investment in new energy will exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2030. If other measures such as energy conservation and forest carbon sink are added, the total capital demand will probably be At around 40 trillion.
However, He Jiankun emphasized that China’s low-carbon commitments made this time are also positive for promoting the transformation of economic development mode and industrial transformation. Zou Yu also pointed out that China's commitment not only considers international factors but also domestic needs.
He stressed that for China, this ambitious emission reduction plan is not easy, and it can be reached with bare feet. However, since we have made a commitment, China will say that it must do what it does, and make its own contribution to the global response to climate change.

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