In the first half of this year, the machinery industry basically continued its positive trend of falling stabilized in the fourth quarter of last year. The economic performance of the industry showed a trend of slow recovery, moderate growth, and steady development. At the same time, under the influence of the market retreat mechanism, the industry has expanded its expansion and cooling, R&D and innovation have warmed up, and the highlights of structural adjustment have continued to show.

First, the main operating characteristics of the machinery industry in the first half

(1) The growth rate of industrial added value has slowly risen and is close to the national average level According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the value-added of machinery industry from January to June increased by 9.2% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. On a monthly basis, the growth rate of machinery industry's added value was 9% in January-February, which was 0.9% lower than the growth rate of national industrial added value over the same period. However, the growth rate of machinery industry's added value showed an overall upward trend from month to month. In May, the monthly growth rate reached 9.9% and 9.7% respectively, which is higher than the monthly growth rate of industrial production in the country. From January to June, the accumulative growth rate of the machinery industry only lags behind the national industrial growth rate by 0.1 percentage point.

(II) Industry benefits rebounded faster than production and sales The growth of machinery industry efficiency at the beginning of the year continued the trend of weak growth in the previous year. The profit growth in the first quarter was only 6.38% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the growth rate of profit growth in the industry accelerated. From January to June, total accumulated profits reached 600.1 billion yuan, an increase of 12.58% over the previous year's low base, and the growth rate accelerated by 10.64 percentage points year-on-year. From January to June, the profit rate of main business income was 6.35%, basically remained stable.

In the first half of the year, the growth rate of main business income was stable. The total business income from January to June totaled 9.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.92% year-on-year.

From January to June, the number of loss-making enterprises in the machinery industry increased by 646 over the same period of last year, with a loss of 15.99%, a year-on-year increase of 0.83 percentage points, but the monthly loss outlook showed a narrowing trend.

(III) Intensified industrial differentiation, and the difficulty of typical investment products manufacturing enterprises Among the 64 major machinery industry products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 36 kinds of year-on-year growth in production in the first half of the year, accounting for 56.25% of the total, accounting for the same There are 28 kinds of declining products, accounting for 43.75% of the total. Specifically, the increase in output of products in different industries is quite different. Overall, products that are closely related to consumption are generally better than investment products. Products such as agricultural machinery products, passenger cars in automobiles, and instrumentation products have good output growth. The production and sales of automobiles continued to grow rapidly. In the first half of the year, the cumulative production and sales volume exceeded 10 million units, which were 10,715,700 units and 10,782,200 units respectively, which represented an increase of 12.8% and 12.3% year-on-year, of which the production and sales volume of passenger cars increased by 14.02% and 13.81 respectively year-on-year. %. The output of typical investment products, such as machine tools, construction machinery, heavy machinery, and power generation equipment, has dropped sharply. Enterprises in related industries have experienced more difficulties than last year. The output of excavators, metal cutting machine tools, metal rolling equipment, and power station boilers decreased by 13.89%, 12.55%, 12.04%, and 12%, respectively, year-on-year.

(IV) The growth rate of financial expenses declined, and the total amount of accounts receivable remained at a high level. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of the financial expenses of machinery industry and its interest expenses has declined significantly from the previous year, with a drop of around 30 percentage points. The cost increased by 1.66% year-on-year, of which interest expenses increased by 5.32% year-on-year.

Although the momentum of rapid increase in financing costs has eased, due to the weak market demand, the total amount of receivables of the machinery industry continued the upward trend of the previous year, which totaled 2.89 trillion yuan from January to June, although the growth rate was higher than the previous year. The year has declined, but it still grows 14.8% year-on-year.

(5) Insufficient demand exacerbated excessive competition, and product prices continued to fall under the influence of insufficient user demand. This year, the market competition for mechanical products has become more intense, and the overall price level has continued the downturn of the previous year. Until June, the cumulative price index for mechanical products It is lower than 100% for 18 months in a row and continues to decline. In February of this year, the price index was 98.8%, and it dropped to 98.6% again in June, indicating that the current prices of mechanical industrial products are still in a downward channel. Of the 142 products, the ex-factory prices of 82 products decreased year-on-year, accounting for 57.75%.

(6) The export situation of foreign trade is severe Since the beginning of this year, the export situation of the foreign trade of the machinery industry has been grim, and the accumulative export growth rate has continued to fall. Total exports from January to June totaled 175.3 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1.51%. The growth rate fell by 7.76 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and was 8.89 percentage points lower than the national export growth rate over the same period. From the current month, exports in the first half of the first half of the month fell compared to the same period of last year, and the value of exports in the month of June was 29.9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.63%, which was a 2.62 percentage point drop from May.

(7) Orders of key enterprises rebounded slightly Since this year, the order growth rate of key enterprises surveyed by the machinery industry has picked up slowly. From January to June, the accumulative orders of key enterprises in the machinery industry increased by 3.78% year-on-year, 3.46% faster than in the first quarter, and nearly three. In the past month, the growth rate has remained above 3.5%. Orders from the industry have changed from a sustained negative growth in the previous year to a slight increase.

Second, the market forced mechanism to promote mechanical industrial restructuring

In the first half of the year, the growth rate of the machinery industry stabilized at a low level. Under the action of the force-reversing mechanism, the industrial structure of the industry continued to advance. The prominent highlights were the expansion of expansion and cooling, the rising of innovation, and the evolution of the structure in the expected direction.

(1) Declining growth rate of investment and cooling down from expansion Since the beginning of this year, the investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry has continued its declining trend in the previous year. The accumulated year-on-year growth rate has continued to decline since March, and the change has been significantly higher than that of the entire society and all The rapid growth of investment in fixed assets in the manufacturing sector continued to be lower than the growth of the entire society and all manufacturing industries in the first half of the year. In the first half of this year, fixed assets investment totaled 1.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.09%, a year-on-year decrease of more than 14 percentage points, and lower than the growth of fixed assets investment of the entire society and all manufacturing industries by 6.01 and 3.01 percentage points. It shows that the expansion of the industry's expansion has obviously cooled.

(II) “Innovation Drive” has become a more and more business choice Facing the severe challenge of the decline in the demand for traditional products, the research and development of new products and new processes in the industry have become more active this year. More and more companies are striving to develop new markets by relying on new products, reduce costs through technological advancement, increase profits through substitution of imports, and cultivate new growth points through innovation.

In order to grasp the initiative of product innovation and improve the core competitiveness, although the production and operation of most enterprises are more difficult, the intensity of R&D investment in the industry has not diminished. More and more leading companies in the industry are seizing the opportunity to “go out to attract talents” and at the same time step up their efforts to invest in the construction of their own R&D laboratories in an effort to build their R&D and testing capabilities ahead of their peers.

(III) Private enterprises show greater vitality in dealing with market fluctuations The weak market demand has brought challenges to the traditional products and traditional production modes of the machinery industry. In the market competition, private enterprises have shown greater vitality.

From January to June, private enterprises completed their main business income of 5.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.47% year-on-year, 3.55% higher than the average level of the machinery industry over the same period, accounting for 56.02%, an increase of 1.71 percentage points from the previous year; realizing a profit of 3041 Billion yuan, an increase of 15.26% over the same period of last year, higher than the average level of 2.68 percentage points in the machinery industry during the same period, accounting for 50.67%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points over the previous year; cumulative exports of 60.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.55%, higher than the same period machinery The industrial average was 11.04 percentage points, accounting for 34.73% of the total, an increase of 3.41 percentage points over the previous year.

(IV) Regional structural adjustment continued to increase 14.2% and 17.55% of the main business income of machinery enterprises in the central and western regions in the first half of the year respectively, which was 2.37 and 5.7 percentage points higher than that of the eastern region. In terms of the proportion, the central and western regions accounted for machinery. The proportion of industrial main business income was 32.43%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points from the previous year. The proportion of profit in the central and western regions was 31.13%, an increase of 0.06 percentage point from the previous year. From the completion of regional investment, the eastern, central and western regions completed investment in fixed assets of 936.5 billion yuan, 559.6 billion yuan and 221.4 billion yuan, an increase of 12.25%, 21.1%, and 5.91% respectively. The growth rate in the central region was significantly higher than in other regions, and the proportion of the increase was 1.89 percentage points higher than the previous year.

Third, the prediction of the trend of the machinery industry throughout the year

Although the machinery industry is still faced with many difficulties such as sluggish domestic demand and weak export growth, given that the Party Central Committee and the State Council are adopting a series of countermeasures for stability and progress, the current overall operation of the machinery industry has stabilized at a low level and has rebounded slightly. In addition, problems such as high financial costs and difficulties in recovering loans that affect the development of the industry in the previous period have been suppressed to a certain extent, and the increase in orders has rebounded. In particular, under the influence of the market retreat mechanism, more and more mechanical companies are working hard to promote structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. Positive factors in the economic operation of the industry are growing. Luo Baihui believes that the trend of the mechanical industry in the second half of the year is expected to maintain stable development. . It is expected that the growth rate of the economic growth of the machinery industry will be slightly higher than that of 2012. The growth rate of production and sales is about 12%, and the profit growth rate is about 8%. The export scale is basically the same as that of the previous year.